Projecting Future Development of the Russian Forest Sector Using Forest Sector Model
نویسنده
چکیده
--The Russian forest sector is currently under pressure of an economic crisis. Average annual production of the roundwood has decreased about 3 times since 1989. Limited domestic demand for forest products restricts production growth and the development of the technology in forest industries. At the same time forest resources are not fully utilized. However, this situation may change in the future. The key factor affecting the future of the forest sector is annual GDP growth. The PELPS III model is utilized for projecting the future of the Russian forest sector. Preliminary results show that it will take a long time to restore past production levels in the forest industries. The paper also outlines the future development of a forest sector model using a partial equilibrium framework for forest industries and forestry sector. ____________________________________________________________________________________________
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